Are we in an Art Market Bubble?

[topper]

May 22, 2024 16:21:49 GMT 1 thrash822 said:

May 22, 2024 3:19:29 GMT 1 nobokov said:

Not sure why you deleted your post. Just keep trying and sell what you can before everyone realizes that the art market is a big scam.  Most have already figured it out and the one's who are buying either really love art or still believe in a comeback.  And some are still holding onto those beanie babies and tulips waiting for the mania to return. Art is not easy to sell unless there's a mania. Art is inherently worthless.

At the major auction houses, much of the artwork is now selling below their primary prices. Meaning that primary prices are overblown. People chasing hot artists are getting ripped off because of fomo and they'll never be able to profit unless they can find a bigger sucker. Good luck and hope you find some buyers out there.

Thank you very much for your kind and thoughtful reply! I had to delete my post because I have a lot of conflict in my life right now, and after getting a response to my post that made me feel stupid, I just don't need that right now and so I deleted it so I don't get any more hate. I just wanted to share my thoughts and so I am happy to see you have written on the subject so I do appreciate it very much!

I don't usually get involved in arguments on here, preferring to stick to the art (we've got Twitter for a bust up and WhatsApp for banter) but just wanted to say that there was nothing wrong with that post of yours. It was well though out, well written and asked relevant questions for any collector.

The response from the idiot says more about them than it does about you. Please don't stop commenting, I for one appreciate a wide range of opinions from people thinking about the art and the market.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do. Personally I'd wait it out if you are able to, sell if you must. This isn't the first market drop, nor is it the end of interest in popular culture. Cheers

[shoottheglass]

May 22, 2024 16:21:49 GMT 1 thrash822 said:

May 22, 2024 3:19:29 GMT 1 nobokov said:

Not sure why you deleted your post. Just keep trying and sell what you can before everyone realizes that the art market is a big scam.  Most have already figured it out and the one's who are buying either really love art or still believe in a comeback.  And some are still holding onto those beanie babies and tulips waiting for the mania to return. Art is not easy to sell unless there's a mania. Art is inherently worthless.

At the major auction houses, much of the artwork is now selling below their primary prices. Meaning that primary prices are overblown. People chasing hot artists are getting ripped off because of fomo and they'll never be able to profit unless they can find a bigger sucker. Good luck and hope you find some buyers out there.

Thank you very much for your kind and thoughtful reply! I had to delete my post because I have a lot of conflict in my life right now, and after getting a response to my post that made me feel stupid, I just don't need that right now and so I deleted it so I don't get any more hate. I just wanted to share my thoughts and so I am happy to see you have written on the subject so I do appreciate it very much!

Please. There's too much hand holding and cry baby nonsense on here as it is. "Waaahh, waaaahh, I bought some posters and stickers and now I'm struggling to sell them for less than cost". Boo, fucking, hooo.

Grow a pair, you insufferable cunt!

Admit it, you're in it for all the wrong reasons and Art is just NOT for you! Now, run along back to your little flock to resume your FOMO circle jerk.

[nobokov]

May 23, 2024 1:48:47 GMT 1 shoottheglass said:

May 22, 2024 16:21:49 GMT 1 thrash822 said:

Thank you very much for your kind and thoughtful reply! I had to delete my post because I have a lot of conflict in my life right now, and after getting a response to my post that made me feel stupid, I just don't need that right now and so I deleted it so I don't get any more hate. I just wanted to share my thoughts and so I am happy to see you have written on the subject so I do appreciate it very much!

Please. There's too much hand holding and cry baby nonsense on here as it is. "Waaahh, waaaahh, I bought some posters and stickers and now I'm struggling to sell them for less than cost". Boo, fucking, hooo.

Grow a pair, you insufferable cunt!

Admit it, you're in it for all the wrong reasons and Art is just NOT for you! Now, run along back to your little flock to resume your FOMO circle jerk.

Everything okay man? Your earlier posts in your history seemed normal, but now you seem........different.

[shoottheglass]

May 23, 2024 3:05:27 GMT 1 nobokov said:

May 23, 2024 1:48:47 GMT 1 shoottheglass said:

Please. There's too much hand holding and cry baby nonsense on here as it is. "Waaahh, waaaahh, I bought some posters and stickers and now I'm struggling to sell them for less than cost". Boo, fucking, hooo.

Grow a pair, you insufferable cunt!

Admit it, you're in it for all the wrong reasons and Art is just NOT for you! Now, run along back to your little flock to resume your FOMO circle jerk.

Everything okay man? Your earlier posts in your history seemed normal, but now you seem........different.

Perfectly fine Nobokov. Thanks for asking. How are you?

[Fluffy Pillow]

May 23, 2024 1:48:47 GMT 1 shoottheglass said:

May 22, 2024 16:21:49 GMT 1 thrash822 said:

Thank you very much for your kind and thoughtful reply! I had to delete my post because I have a lot of conflict in my life right now, and after getting a response to my post that made me feel stupid, I just don't need that right now and so I deleted it so I don't get any more hate. I just wanted to share my thoughts and so I am happy to see you have written on the subject so I do appreciate it very much!

Please. There's too much hand holding and cry baby nonsense on here as it is. "Waaahh, waaaahh, I bought some posters and stickers and now I'm struggling to sell them for less than cost". Boo, fucking, hooo.

Grow a pair, you insufferable cunt!

Admit it, you're in it for all the wrong reasons and Art is just NOT for you! Now, run along back to your little flock to resume your FOMO circle jerk.

This guy needs a long hug. His art collection is spiraling as well and too deep in debacle to discuss bubbles. His current state led to social media bullying, farming for endorphins as he refreshes the forums. Step away from the keyboard, leave your phone behind and touch some grass.

[Jules Leotard]

May 22, 2024 9:43:48 GMT 1 lukas01 said:

Mar 22, 2024 7:49:26 GMT 1 Jules Leotard said:

Humble opinion.  We are in a bubble of everything.  I wouldn't buy art right now, but if I could afford it, I also wouldn't sell it.  Strange times.  Any correction to broader markets is being held up/ delayed by the U.S. elections and in this particular instance, THEY ARE IMPORTANT. After that, the game will be on and all things need to be reconciled.  Let's call the period from now until November 'the fragile peace.' If you have some money to park somewhere for the time being, skip the art, and buy silver (the metal).  It's undervalued compared to gold.  Most currencies (to park cash in) are not so good. 

Hello!
I think you said the best thing and gave the best advice ever.
Silver is undervalued. In the coming period and future, it will have a soaring demand. This will be due to the increasing demand for the metal industrially and for use in technology. How many kilos should they buy? This point becomes interesting, in my opinion. According to several industry analysts, even a few hundred grams could yield the best in the future. From this statement only one vision can be deduced, namely that the more people buy now, the better it will be for their future.
If the value per ounce reaches the estimated figures, we will have to take into account that life on this planet will not go very well.

One way or another, here we navigate by sight.
A hug.

If you bought it and profited, that would make me the happiest I could be.  We are in a cycle of things.  For 7-10,000 years the price ratio of gold to silver was 53.  That would put silver at $44/ounce. There was a better risk/reward ratio a couple of years ago when silver was $14/oz.

[LJCal]

My advice to anyone is not to get drawn into the emotions of the market, right now everyone thinks the downward trend won't ever end, just like so many people were convinced the market would keep going up during the boom. Both are/were wrong.

The art market has been around a long time, the arguments around it's intrinsic value and it being a scam have been around just as long; but so many things we place high value on have no intrinsic value, or their market value far exceeds their tangiable worth.

There's a reason Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillip's and Bonham's have been around centuries, during which time we have had the Napoleonic Wars, the French and Russian revolution, the American Civil War, two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, the fall of the twin towers, countless recessions and financial meltdowns. Yet they're still here, why? Because despite all the turmoil the art and collectibles markets recovered. This correction is but a bump in the road in the context of some of the historical challenges the market has faced. Fashions, trends and artists will fall out of favour, new one's will emerge but the market for art and collectibles generally will endure and grow over the medium to long term. 

That's not to say that YOUR collection will recover, you may be sitting on a pile of door stops but the market at large will recover and see massive growth, followed by massive falls for long until all of us here are dust. If you're wondering what you should sell/keep maybe don't focus too much on the market but ask yourself if the works and/or artists in your collection will still likely be relevant in 10 years time, and start thinking in those terms rather than the last auction result.

[Jimini Cricket]

Jun 22, 2024 19:37:28 GMT 1 LJCal said:

My advice to anyone is not to get drawn into the emotions of the market, right now everyone thinks the downward trend won't ever end, just like so many people were convinced the market would keep going up during the boom. Both are/were wrong.

The art market has been around a long time, the arguments around it's intrinsic value and it being a scam have been around just as long; but so many things we place high value on have no intrinsic value, or their market value far exceeds their tangiable worth.

There's a reason Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillip's and Bonham's have been around centuries, during which time we have had the Napoleonic Wars, the French and Russian revolution, the American Civil War, two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, the fall of the twin towers, countless recessions and financial meltdowns. Yet they're still here, why? Because despite all the turmoil the art and collectibles markets recovered. This correction is but bump in the road in the context of some of the historical challenges the market has faced.

That's not to say that YOUR collection will recover, you may be sitting on a pile of door stops but the market at large will recover and see massive growth, followed by massive falls for long until all of us here are dust. If you're wondering what you should sell/keep maybe don't focus too much on the market but ask yourself if the works and/or artists in your collection will still likely be relevant in 10 years time, and start thinking in those terms rather than the last auction result.

This is UAA. All is cared about is the ROI. Sad but true.

[drbf]

Jun 23, 2024 2:47:28 GMT 1 Jimini Cricket said:

Jun 22, 2024 19:37:28 GMT 1 LJCal said:

My advice to anyone is not to get drawn into the emotions of the market, right now everyone thinks the downward trend won't ever end, just like so many people were convinced the market would keep going up during the boom. Both are/were wrong.

The art market has been around a long time, the arguments around it's intrinsic value and it being a scam have been around just as long; but so many things we place high value on have no intrinsic value, or their market value far exceeds their tangiable worth.

There's a reason Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillip's and Bonham's have been around centuries, during which time we have had the Napoleonic Wars, the French and Russian revolution, the American Civil War, two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, the fall of the twin towers, countless recessions and financial meltdowns. Yet they're still here, why? Because despite all the turmoil the art and collectibles markets recovered. This correction is but bump in the road in the context of some of the historical challenges the market has faced.

That's not to say that YOUR collection will recover, you may be sitting on a pile of door stops but the market at large will recover and see massive growth, followed by massive falls for long until all of us here are dust. If you're wondering what you should sell/keep maybe don't focus too much on the market but ask yourself if the works and/or artists in your collection will still likely be relevant in 10 years time, and start thinking in those terms rather than the last auction result.

This is UAA. All is cared about is the ROI. Sad but true.

That’s why it is so nice to get the Art you want to look at everyday on your walls.

[Jimini Cricket]

Jun 23, 2024 3:11:34 GMT 1 drbf said:

Jun 23, 2024 2:47:28 GMT 1 Jimini Cricket said:

This is UAA. All is cared about is the ROI. Sad but true.

That’s why it is so nice to get the Art you want to look at everyday on your walls.

Tell that to the kings that bought to flip but are now stuck having to keep and 'love' their purchases.

[The Italian One]

HIRST (for example) will be relevant in 10 years but can't say the same for all the HENI/prints released;
great artist but oversold.

I would prefer quality art over mass production editions art, there are quiete few artists that will be remembered in 10 years that at the moment are undervalued.

great artist with limited amount of works will always increase year after year

[lukas01]

Jun 23, 2024 9:03:09 GMT 1 The Italian One said:

HIRST (for example) will be relevant in 10 years but can't say the same for all the HENI/prints released;
great artist but oversold.

I would prefer quality art over mass production editions art, there are quiete few artists that will be remembered in 10 years that at the moment are undervalued.

great artist with limited amount of works will always increase year after year

The number of works produced can increase or decrease the artist's coefficient in the evaluation of his works and I believe that this "method" also does not confirm the rule.

There are very prolific artists who are highly regarded and their works are worth a lot.

If you can afford to buy art, buy what you like best.
This is the only certain rule that gives you satisfaction.

[Georgie Poppit]

The majority of artists who have appeared on this forum won’t stand the test of time. That list is huge. Much of the art is great if you like it but won’t ever turn a profit. Right now collectors are buying but they’re buying the best examples of blue chip. Anything else right now is best avoided.

[Daniel Silk]

[Daniel Silk]

[Daniel Silk]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_1mQN9OS3z

[Man from Castle]

My 2 poor cent

Art, for many, is not just a passion or a form of expression, but a true economic asset. The large sums of money that drive the art market do not come from small enthusiasts, but from major investors who view art as a speculative resource, much like in the stock market. This phenomenon also affects smaller collectors, who find themselves facing dynamics similar to those of stock or cryptocurrency investors.

In fact, by looking at the long-term trends (about 10 years) in Banksy’s market, one can observe a cyclical pattern very similar to Bitcoin’s. An artist like Banksy, considered a “blue chip” in the art world, is seen by many as an artistic safe haven. However, even for artists of this caliber, there are moments of value decline, followed by speculative rebounds. Just like cryptocurrencies, the art market tends to fluctuate, and those who can ride these cycles stand to make significant profits.

For me the rule is "it is better to see money on the wall than on the computer monitor"

Here is a chart I had fun overlaying.

[Cool User Name]

Oct 1, 2024 10:29:23 GMT 1 Man from Castle said:

My 2 poor cent

Art, for many, is not just a passion or a form of expression, but a true economic asset. The large sums of money that drive the art market do not come from small enthusiasts, but from major investors who view art as a speculative resource, much like in the stock market. This phenomenon also affects smaller collectors, who find themselves facing dynamics similar to those of stock or cryptocurrency investors.

In fact, by looking at the long-term trends (about 10 years) in Banksy’s market, one can observe a cyclical pattern very similar to Bitcoin’s. An artist like Banksy, considered a “blue chip” in the art world, is seen by many as an artistic safe haven. However, even for artists of this caliber, there are moments of value decline, followed by speculative rebounds. Just like cryptocurrencies, the art market tends to fluctuate, and those who can ride these cycles stand to make significant profits.

For me the rule is "it is better to see money on the wall than on the computer monitor"

Here is a chart I had fun overlaying.

Interesting. It would be good to see this in log scale going back further to 2009

[topper]

Thanks Man From Castle, really interesting.

I suspect the huge difference between the markets is from 2023 onwards.

[Man from Castle]

Oct 1, 2024 11:54:09 GMT 1 topper said:

Thanks Man From Castle, really interesting.

I suspect the huge difference between the markets is from 2023 onwards.

I'm with you, there are many variables that can influence the value (post 2023) but I wanted to higlight the fact that (in my opinion), the pattern is similar and over time (perhaps over several years) it will or could be replicated because conceptually they are speculative assets...

this is also know with the name of "Wall Street Cheat Sheet"

[Fuzzyduck121]

Interesting thread

I am unsure whats happening either short or long term but I have spent a lot of time researching the financials of the art market.

For example taking Warhol as the eminent blue chip artist and a hold for many small and big investors and collectors, if you compare across many works you find this;

2014:
www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5787467

2024
onlineonly.christies.com/s/prints-multiples/andy-warhol-1928-1987-9/231870

this work has devalued 20% in 10 years

as a hedge against inflation you would be better with the cash under the bed or buying premium bonds you would make a lot more

the recent book on collecting art by Magnus Resch really does explain most of this when he states that 99.9% of money spent on art results in a loss, when studying over decades.

Most of us on here have been lucky thinking we understand the market, but we dont. It was a blip in time and a lot of luck that possibly wont be repeated anytime soon. It could be, but it probably wont be.

Buy what you like as most of the time it wont make money

90% of galleries and art traders go out of business before they have traded for a decade, the ones we see around for a long time are the 1% of the 1%, people forget that.

Note: Of course there are examples good and bad my point being that no art is a guaranteed good investment and the vast majority is definitely not. Over time other than massive original works that grab headlines for their inflated values so that the uber rich can either wash or hide money most art should be bought because you like it.

[Daniel Silk]

Individual Artists and Styles of Art go in and out of Fashion, plus a major factor to take into account is the Supply & Demand. The above example of the Warhol piece, the drop in value can be down partly to the publics feelings on China, plus the massive increase of Pop Art style pieces in the Market soaking up the demand.

[Man from Castle]

Oct 1, 2024 12:55:35 GMT 1 Fuzzyduck121 said:

90% of galleries and art traders go out of business before they have traded for a decade, the ones we see around for a long time are the 1% of the 1%, people forget that.                

Galleries need constant income given their fixed costs and not all have the funds to compensate for the non-prolific periods and therefore sustain a full market cycle (the largest are still alive and getting bigger).

It is different for small art investors who can hang the work and wait for this cycle to repeat.

[tonys]

I've said elsewhere on here. If you're looking at an investment, then art is not the right price now. In 2020 with interest rates at 0% and people were able to speculate on art and we saw some records being smashed. Roll on a few years and you can basically get zero risk 5-6% interest at high street banks. The same was in classic cars, watches too.

Off topic, but related, I was reading about ETFs the other day, Vanguard in particular and that has appreciated by 100% in 5 years. Add in the craze for AI shares, crypto, you can see why the money has shifted away from art.

[New Wave Dave]

Oct 1, 2024 10:29:23 GMT 1 Man from Castle said:

My 2 poor cent

Art, for many, is not just a passion or a form of expression, but a true economic asset. The large sums of money that drive the art market do not come from small enthusiasts, but from major investors who view art as a speculative resource, much like in the stock market. This phenomenon also affects smaller collectors, who find themselves facing dynamics similar to those of stock or cryptocurrency investors.

In fact, by looking at the long-term trends (about 10 years) in Banksy’s market, one can observe a cyclical pattern very similar to Bitcoin’s. An artist like Banksy, considered a “blue chip” in the art world, is seen by many as an artistic safe haven. However, even for artists of this caliber, there are moments of value decline, followed by speculative rebounds. Just like cryptocurrencies, the art market tends to fluctuate, and those who can ride these cycles stand to make significant profits.

For me the rule is "it is better to see money on the wall than on the computer monitor"

Here is a chart I had fun overlaying.

Wha-? Bitcoin is doing that well? I thought crypto's days were truly done...

[Daniel Silk]

Art not a good investment at the moment?

I would disagree. A few years back everyone was spending big on Art as it was seen as the safest long-term investment, and that's looking back when vales were super high. Surely now that some prices have come down, isn't this a good time to be buying?
Is it buy high and sell low, or buy low and sell high?

[cemltz]

I will say this: I have never gotten so many last minute "sale room notices" from Christies announcing lots have been pulled and/or reserves have been lowered...it's tough out there...

[Man from Castle]

Oct 1, 2024 22:44:15 GMT 1 Daniel Silk said:

Art not a good investment at the moment?

I would disagree. A few years back everyone was spending big on Art as it was seen as the safest long-term investment, and that's looking back when vales were super high. Surely now that some prices have come down, isn't this a good time to be buying?
Is it buy high and sell low, or buy low and sell high?

The best time to buy has always been when the market crashes, you "just" have to figure out the entry point, not easy i know, but looking at the chart it seems like a good point (we are at about 2018 levels before the "boom").

So Daniel I agree with you. I am now trying to buy rather than sell. 📈

[Fuzzyduck121]

Oct 3, 2024 11:50:15 GMT 1 Man from Castle said:

Oct 1, 2024 22:44:15 GMT 1 Daniel Silk said:

Art not a good investment at the moment?

I would disagree. A few years back everyone was spending big on Art as it was seen as the safest long-term investment, and that's looking back when vales were super high. Surely now that some prices have come down, isn't this a good time to be buying?
Is it buy high and sell low, or buy low and sell high?

The best time to buy has always been when the market crashes, you "just" have to figure out the entry point, not easy i know, but looking at the chart it seems like a good point (we are at about 2018 levels before the "boom").

So Daniel I agree with you. I am now trying to buy rather than sell. 📈

But if your chart went back further then before the 2018 "boom" it was flat for 10 years or more
Are you saying this is a cycle and it will boom again and where is the evidence for that within the world of edtioned artwork?

Art is almost never a good investment why do people think it is?

I seriously dont get it

Tulip bulbs boomed in price 400 years ago, it never happened again

To infer there is an established cycle with the sort of art we are discussing is in my view misleading 

[Man from Castle]

Oct 3, 2024 11:58:29 GMT 1 Fuzzyduck121 said:

Oct 3, 2024 11:50:15 GMT 1 Man from Castle said:

The best time to buy has always been when the market crashes, you "just" have to figure out the entry point, not easy i know, but looking at the chart it seems like a good point (we are at about 2018 levels before the "boom").

So Daniel I agree with you. I am now trying to buy rather than sell. 📈

But if your chart went back further then before the 2018 "boom" it was flat for 10 years or more
Are you saying this is a cycle and it will boom again and where is the evidence for that within the world of edtioned artwork?

Art is almost never a good investment why do people think it is?

I seriously dont get it

Tulip bulbs boomed in price 400 years ago, it never happened again

To infer there is an established cycle with the sort of art we are discussing is in my view misleading 

it seems to you that the graph is flat because you make the comparison with the "boom" of 2019-2022, it is a graphic arrangement due to the fact that there is little space but if we analyze with the past every year the price has increased steadily from year to year. Now it is only realigning and then continuing its normal increase like every market cycle.

Banksy prints average value year approximately

• 2010: ~112
• 2011: ~150
• 2012 : ~152
• 2013: ~170
• 2014: ~199
• 2015: ~260
• 2016: ~320
• 2017: ~450
• 2018: ~630
• 2019: ~820
• 2020: ~2000
• 2021: ~2700
• 2022: ~1600
• 2023: ~1300
• 2024: ~950

So now for me we are in the right position in an organig growth like years before the bubble

• 2019: ~820 
------------------
• 2024: ~950 

Tulips had no speculative value but only tangible (even perishable) and therefore it is not comparable.

EDIT: this is only my point of view of couse