[Pawel]

Not going to create a separate thread just for that but as they are all family and friends

[Londown 01]

Oct 26, 2024 7:53:22 GMT 1 Pawel said:

Not going to create a separate thread just for that but as they are all family and friends

All those right and far right parties seem to share many of the same "ideals", even when it comes to art and architecture: the Republicans and Trump also tried to have all federal buildings in a (neo-)classical style only ... 

The historical parallels are - again - quite obvious. 

[state]

ironic how grown men who despise trump dedicated a 98 page thread to him (mostly Europeans nonetheless)

to my fellow Americans remember to go out and vote. Let the polls do the talking


Godspeed

[Londown 01]

Oct 26, 2024 17:43:26 GMT 1 state said:

ironic how grown men who despite trump dedicated a 98 page thread to him (mostly Europeans nonetheless)

Meaning what exactly? 

That you cannot debate something when you're grown? Or that you can only have a lengthy discussion about something you like? Or that you can only have an opinion about something that will directly affect you? 

[state]

Oct 26, 2024 17:50:25 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

Oct 26, 2024 17:43:26 GMT 1 state said:

ironic how grown men who despite trump dedicated a 98 page thread to him (mostly Europeans nonetheless)

Meaning what exactly? 

That you cannot debate something when you're grown? Or that you can only have a lengthy discussion about something you like? Or that you can only have an opinion about something that will directly affect you? 

meaning its very one sided to even have a debate. Insults and name calling bring nothing of value here. 

Godspeed

[Londown 01]

Oct 26, 2024 17:58:50 GMT 1 state said:

Oct 26, 2024 17:50:25 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

meaning its very one sided to even have a debate. Insults and name calling bring nothing of value here. 

Godspeed

Knowing that other people think as you do is actually very comforting, and there is a lot of psychological benefits to venting your anger. 

And: There is, in all likelihood, no God. 

[Smokeidaeye]

Oct 26, 2024 18:35:56 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

Oct 26, 2024 17:58:50 GMT 1 state said:

meaning its very one sided to even have a debate. Insults and name calling bring nothing of value here. 

Godspeed

Knowing that other people think as you do is actually very comforting, and there is a lot of psychological benefits to venting your anger. 

And: There is, in all likelihood, no God. 

Not to mention the fact that this thread is "one sided" for a reason. Regardless of who he has run against (Hillary, Biden, or Harris), Trump has proven to be the most polarizing politician in US history. His words and actions have raised serious questions and concerns from everyone around him other than those who need him for political gain (and remember, even a ton of them spoke out against him right after January 6th, but eventually were forced to fall back in line or risk losing support from the MAGA base). And it isn't because people "are out to get him" like he pretends, it is all his doing. 

Have you ever heard him say anything positive about the country and/or any consistent, from-the-heart (i.e. non-teleprompter) message of unity, prosperity, and positive vision? It is always doom and gloom, "they are all coming to get you" fear mongering, whether it is Democrats, the media, non-Christian religions, most women (other than to sexualize them), members of the LGBTQ community, brown people, anyone in government who doesn't kiss the ring, etc. Harris has her flaws but just listen to her describe America versus how Trump sees it. I forget who said it, but just count the number of "me's" in his rally speeches versus the number of "we's".

Trump can't even SMILE without it looking painfully forced, let alone speak with any type of joy or togetherness.

[Acme Thunderer]

Oct 26, 2024 17:43:26 GMT 1 state said:

ironic how grown men who despise trump dedicated a 98 page thread to him (mostly Europeans nonetheless)

to my fellow Americans remember to go out and vote. Let the polls do the talking


Godspeed

The thread was started in 2015 and there have only been 2 pages of comments in 2024.

It looks like this election hasn’t been debated much, which is a shame considering US presidents have a major influence across the world.

I certainly echo the sentiment that everyone should vote (and not just to win $1 million from Elon Musk).

I’m sure all European’s wish the anti-abortion, pro-gun, Putin schmoozing, porn star f*cker all the best in the election.

[state]

Oct 26, 2024 18:35:56 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

Oct 26, 2024 17:58:50 GMT 1 state said:

meaning its very one sided to even have a debate. Insults and name calling bring nothing of value here. 

Godspeed

Knowing that other people think as you do is actually very comforting, and there is a lot of psychological benefits to venting your anger. 

And: There is, in all likelihood, no God. 

you should really take a page from your own book. after all, you are the one name calling a 78 year old man... 

find love brother. your heart is filled with too much hate 

And: a quick google search says 70%+ of the world disagrees with you. Perhaps you know something we dont? 

Anyways, we are all entitled to an opinion. The beauty of free speech

Godspeed 

[Londown 01]

Oct 26, 2024 19:17:28 GMT 1 state said:

Oct 26, 2024 18:35:56 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

you are the one name calling a 78 year old man... 

What exactly did I say (that would qualify as "name calling")?

[Smokeidaeye]

70% of the world agrees with what exactly? 

That Trump cares more about the praise of dictators than our allies or even non-base voter Americans?

This is him today on the Joe Rogan podcast, again praising a dictator (Kim Jong Un) while villainizing any US citizen who doesn't praise him.

“I got to know him very well. We had no problem with him. If you have a smart problem, if you have a smart, really the right president, the smart president, you’re not going to have a problem. And I say it to people, we have a bigger problem, in my opinion, with the enemy from within, and it drives them crazy when I use that term. But we have an enemy from within. We have people that are really bad people that I really think want to make this country unsuccessful,” Trump said.

[Pete the Post]

Oct 26, 2024 19:17:28 GMT 1 state said:

Oct 26, 2024 18:35:56 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

Knowing that other people think as you do is actually very comforting, and there is a lot of psychological benefits to venting your anger. 

And: There is, in all likelihood, no God. 

find love brother. your heart is filled with too much hate 

This will look a bit silly if trump gets in. Its also a little odd (parody odd!) considering the blatant hate that trump throws around the place. I think you may have misjudged your messiah.

[Lunch Special]

Even i don't think trump would be stupid enough to buy a wcp so most of you all have no say here.

[Masong]

Oct 26, 2024 21:35:02 GMT 1 Lunch Special said:

Even i don't think trump would be stupid enough to buy a wcp so most of ya'll have no say here.

Y’all.

[Lunch Special]

Oct 26, 2024 21:53:53 GMT 1 Masong said:

Oct 26, 2024 21:35:02 GMT 1 Lunch Special said:

Even i don't think trump would be stupid enough to buy a wcp so most of ya'll have no say here.

Y’all.

Fixed

[its all about me]

Oct 26, 2024 17:43:26 GMT 1 state said:

ironic how grown men who despise trump dedicated a 98 page thread to him (mostly Europeans nonetheless)

to my fellow Americans remember to go out and vote. Let the polls do the talking


Godspeed

I honestly don't understand the appeal of Donald Trump, I really don't.  Perhaps you could enlighten me.  

He says the most appalling things about women, about foreigners, about Democrats, even about fellow Republicans who he doesn't like.  His fanbase literally wanted to kill Mike Pence and Trump did nothing to calm them down or tell them not to.  

And yet people still love him.  I don't get it.  

Perhaps people are so angry and xenophobic that they find it comforting to have someone in power who is similar to them.  I don't know. 

[Daniel Silk]

What do you think of Polymarket?

polymarket.com/elections

[Londown 01]

Oct 26, 2024 19:21:33 GMT 1 Londown 01 said:

Oct 26, 2024 19:17:28 GMT 1 state said:

you are the one name calling a 78 year old man... 

What exactly did I say (that would qualify as "name calling")?

Very Trumpian in method: saying something that is completely untrue and then not being able or willing to back it up

[Pete the Post]

Its weird how things take different relevance in different places. Being as bonfire night is based on UK politics (bit obvious to most i know!). The Americans have no idea of our old addage,

Remember remember the 5th of November
Gunpowder, treason and plot.


I fear this is one of those warnings from history that got missed.

[demeisen]

I think its a very useful betting market. I dont think it is 'manipulated' as some suggest, because if there was discrepancy with odds vs expectation - that discrepancy would be taken as free money/hedge by others. Interestingly, I checked UK odds from bookies and we are typically looking at 11/18 Trump vs Harris 13/8, indicating a Trump victory at circa 62% probability.

[Pete the Post]

Oct 28, 2024 10:17:09 GMT 1 demeisen said:

I think its a very useful betting market. I dont think it is 'manipulated' as some suggest, because if there was discrepancy with odds vs expectation - that discrepancy would be taken as free money/hedge by others. Interestingly, I checked UK odds from bookies and we are typically looking at 11/18 Trump vs Harris 13/8, indicating a Trump victory at circa 62% probability.

Betting odds are a horrible way to look at politics. But at the same time, they have the real skin in the game and are sadly a dam good gauge. 

That said, 100/1 outsiders have been known to win horse races so there is still hope! 

[demeisen]

Agreed, the financialisation of most things are a horrible and reductive way to look at things - art included - but unfortunately in a world of bias media, the market is a leading indicator of unbiased sentiment.

[its all about me]

Oct 28, 2024 9:33:59 GMT 1 Daniel Silk said:

What do you think of Polymarket?

polymarket.com/elections

I would like to know where they get their data from. They don't seem to say.

It seems rather odd as nearly all polls I have seen show Trump and Harris as on almost 50% each, or 49 to 51.  And yet this site gives Trump a 30% lead.  Why is it so markedly different to other sites?

[skybluemark]

trump is most likely a shareholder. its the missinformation war, give a big lead so democrat supporters wont bother voting for a futile cause.

[its all about me]

Oct 28, 2024 11:55:43 GMT 1 demeisen said:

Agreed, the financialisation of most things are a horrible and reductive way to look at things - art included - but unfortunately in a world of bias media, the market is a leading indicator of unbiased sentiment.

Are these based on people's bets?  If so that is certainly not a good predictor of the result.  I would suggest that the vast majority of Americans do not bet on the outcome of the election and those that do are rabid fans.  It stands to reason that Trump has more 'rabid' fans than Harris so such a site will obviously put Trump way ahead.  That tells you nothing about people's voting intentions. 

[demeisen]

Oct 28, 2024 13:35:15 GMT 1 its all about me said:

Oct 28, 2024 11:55:43 GMT 1 demeisen said:

Agreed, the financialisation of most things are a horrible and reductive way to look at things - art included - but unfortunately in a world of bias media, the market is a leading indicator of unbiased sentiment.

Are these based on people's bets?  If so that is certainly not a good predictor of the result.  I would suggest that the vast majority of Americans do not bet on the outcome of the election and those that do are rabid fans.  It stands to reason that Trump has more 'rabid' fans than Harris so such a site will obviously put Trump way ahead.  That tells you nothing about people's voting intentions. 

Indeed these are peoples bets, and whilst I agree it certainly has its limitations to use in modelling (overreaction to events, herd behaviour and small sample size), they have historically had strengths when used complimentary to polls (monetary incentives, wisdom of crowds and real time information). One other metric to keep an eye on is the US 10y treasury, imho this is a much more telling metric because big finance is the backbone of a modern day western nation - the 10y seems to be pricing Trump at greater than 50/50, in line with a ~60/40. Eitherway, im more interested in the UKs budget this week!

[Acme Thunderer]

Just a few large bets can distort the odds.

I posted this link before about how the value of Trust Social changed.

fortune.com/2024/10/25/trump-election-stock-worthless/

In politics, take nothing at face value and learn to read between the lines (especially when millions/billions of $ are at stake). 😉

[ck1]

Oct 28, 2024 15:36:33 GMT 1 demeisen said:

Oct 28, 2024 13:35:15 GMT 1 its all about me said:

Are these based on people's bets?  If so that is certainly not a good predictor of the result.  I would suggest that the vast majority of Americans do not bet on the outcome of the election and those that do are rabid fans.  It stands to reason that Trump has more 'rabid' fans than Harris so such a site will obviously put Trump way ahead.  That tells you nothing about people's voting intentions. 

Indeed these are peoples bets, and whilst I agree it certainly has its limitations to use in modelling (overreaction to events, herd behaviour and small sample size), they have historically had strengths when used complimentary to polls (monetary incentives, wisdom of crowds and real time information). One other metric to keep an eye on is the US 10y treasury, imho this is a much more telling metric because big finance is the backbone of a modern day western nation - the 10y seems to be pricing Trump at greater than 50/50, in line with a ~60/40. Eitherway, im more interested in the UKs budget this week!

The betting sites reflect non US bets. Biggest better turns out to be French with a 45m bet on trump. These are momentum based. 
regardless, by all metrics trump is set to win this election. 
it has nothing to do with the headlines that you probably see repeated ((the US is no more racist or fascist than it used to be).
it is mainly a rejection of the current administration and people being unhappy with the current state of the country. 
Kamala dropped the ball.
we will be fine either way. 

[argylepaul]

Go the Donald! And when you get elected, rip into Lammy and Starmer! 

[LJCal]

People waste far too much energy worrying about this nonsense, it’s a pantomime played by terrible actors. I’d say this stuff is only really relevant to about 1/1000 people, I’d say 1/100,000 people have any real influence over the outcome. If most people focused the same energy on things they have some degree of agency over, I suspect they’d be far more content